Zelensky has fourth telephone call with Putin

Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke with Russian
President Putin on Nov. 25 in their fourth such telephone conversation. They discussed
the prospects of conducting natural gas transit talks in the trilateral format
of Ukraine-Russia-EU, according to The President’s Office Facebook page. The
two presidents “discussed in detail the gas issue, including extending transit
and renewing direct supplies of Russian gas to Ukraine,” in the version offered
by the Russian Presidential Administration. It reported the conversation
occurred at Zelensky’s initiative in consideration of the Normandy Format
summit planned for Dec. 9. The President’s Office said Zelensky mentioned the
importance of Russia’s decision to return three Ukrainian navy ships, but also
“stressed the need for the return of all the armaments, equipment and
documentation that was on the ships.”

Ukraine’s price for Russian natural gas will be among
the lowest ever if a transit agreement is reached by the year end, Energy and
Environmental Minister Oleksiy Orzhel said during a Nov. 25 presentation, as
reported by the epravda.com.ua news site. That’s the case regardless of the unprecedented
gas supplies currently in underground storage, he said, adding that a transit
contract can bring USD 3 bln in annual revenue to the state operator. Signing a
new agreement is an absolute priority for the ministry, he said.

About 75% of the Ukrainian public supports Zelensky
initiating talks with Russian President Putin to resolve the armed conflict in
Donbas, according to a poll conducted between Nov. 4 and 19 involving 2,049
respondents by the Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund and the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology. About 59.2% supports Zelensky’s decision
to withdraw forces from the separation line.

Zenon Zawada: Russia will
be resorting to its standard tactic of offering cheap natural gas in exchange
for Ukrainian sovereignty in its ongoing talks with Zelensky. Former President
Yanukovych took the bait, trading the Russian proposal for cheap gas in
exchange for postponing (indefinitely) the signing of the Ukraine-EU
Association Agreement. The EuroMaidan protest erupted as a result, leading to
his overthrow.

We believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that
Zelensky will take a similar deal, considering that cheaper gas is among the key
concerns of Ukrainians, particularly among his core electorate of urban,
southeast Ukrainians (many of whom work in gas-dependent industries). We
believe Zelensky can avoid Yanukovych’s fate if he demonstrates to the public,
especially the West, that the Ukrainian public supports his approach.
Zelensky’s team has shown it’s far more talented in communicating with the
public than Yanukovych’s team was.