Zelensky sets one-year deadline on Donbas peace deal

The Ukrainian government will withdraw from the Donbas
peace talks with Russia in a year if progress isn’t made, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with theguardian.com news site
published on Mar. 7. “Time is ticking,” Zelensky said, pointing at his watch.
“The government can spend one year on the entire agreement. Then it should be
implemented. Any longer is prohibited. If it lasts longer, we need to change
the format and choose another strategy.”

It’s a dramatic new deadline, but Zelensky’s urgency
is undercut by a lack of detail, theguardian.com news site reported. He declined
to say what the fallback strategy might be. When his press secretary jumped in
to clarify that the one-year deadline dates from the December Normandy Format
summit, rather than the start of his presidency in May, he replied with a
laugh, “I don’t know any more.” Thinking on the fly, as he often appeared to,
Zelensky bought himself the extra months: “yes it starts from the summit,” the
report said.

Meanwhile, Zelensky reportedly said he has “two or
three plans” in that the current peace talks fail, according to the
pravda.com.ua news site reported, though this was not mentioned in the text of
the published article. “I won’t give my five years, which was given to me by
the Ukrainian people, to work on Minsk for five years. I won’t do that,” Zelensky
allegedly said, referring to the Minsk Accords agreed upon by the Normandy
Format leaders in 2015.

At least two Ukrainian soldiers were killed and nine
injured in armed fighting in Donbas between March 6 and 9, according to reports
of the Joint Forces Operation press service. Meanwhile, Russian-backed forces
violated the ceasefire regime at least ten times. The shooting caused a
Ukrainian base near the Donetsk town of Mariyinka to catch fire, the reports
said.

Zenon Zawada: The harsh
reality is that Russia has the complete upperhand in this conflict, and
Zelensky is in no position to make demands, at least at this point. That’s
especially the case with Zelensky’s poll ratings falling, political and
economic stability rising, and Ukraine’s top oligarchs (Kolomoisky, Pinchuk,
Novinsky) favoring rapprochement with Russia.

Knowing its advantageous position, Russia will not
accept any other peace deal besides the Minsk Accords. Doing so would renew
Ukraine’s reputation in the international community, while keeping the Minsk
Accords in place plays into the narrative of Ukraine failing to uphold its end
of the agreement (for those who believe in this narrative or use it as a
convenient excuse). Meanwhile, it’s obvious that Zelensky will not use military
force to resolve the conflict. And since he has taken the populist route with
his new cabinet appointed last week, we see no other choice for political
survival than capitulating to Russian demands. Even then, Zelensky’s prospects
for political success are slim.