Zelensky willing to amend constitution for Donbas autonomy, aide says

The President’s Office is ready to amend the Ukrainian
constitution as a result of Normandy Format talks, but only to enable
decentralization on behalf of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (collectively
known as Donbas), Presidential Aide Andriy Yermak said at a Dec. 5 conference
in London, organized by the Chatham House think tank and the Ukrainian Prism
Foreign Policy Council. “Ukraine is ready to fulfill the conditions of the
Minsk Accords, which foresees conducting constitutional reforms in
decentralization. Any federalization is not an issue,” he said, as reported by
the eurointegration.com.ua news site. Yermak added, “Certain regions of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions can gain additional powers, but that doesn’t mean
federalization or some kind of autonomy.”

Zelensky is willing to postpone submitting a new bill
on local self-governance in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and to renew the
existing one as among Ukraine’s positions in the Normandy Format talks, Yermak
told the same meeting. “As a result of this summit, we are ready to submit for
parliament’s review a bill on extending this bill’s activity. But at the
beginning of the next year, we will be ready to propose changes to this bill,”
Yermak said. These changes would take into account the agreements to be reached
in Paris on Dec. 9, Yermak said, among them being the implementation of the
Minsk Accords based on the Steinmeier formula. But they can be implemented if
successful agreements are reached, he said. “If we see that Russia is not ready
for progress, we truly have a Plan B,” Yermak said, which he said was building
a wall around Donbas.

Zenon Zawada: Yermak’s
admission in London is precisely what is widely being anticipated, which is that red lines will be crossed.
First, Zelensky withdrew forces along the separation line
among ceasefire violations (violating his own declared principle), then Foreign
Minister Vadym Prystaiko opened the door to OSCE control of the
Russian-Ukrainian border in Donbas, and now Yermak has
indicated a willingness to grant what is, in essence, autonomy to these
regions, a clear red line. As we expected, Yermak is using vague and
conflicting labels, such as allowing decentralization but without autonomy. But
we know the Russians won’t settle for anything less than autonomy in essence.

What’s amusing is that Zelensky said he opposes holding elections before
control of the border is restored, despite that position being indicated in the
Minsk Accords. Now Yermak is saying the constitution needs to be amended
because that’s written into the Minsk Accords. So these are contradictions in
the president’s policies that indicate his team is taking a highly flexible,
piecemeal approach to the talks based on political convenience.

With such admissions ahead of the talks, the
Russian delegation will be wringing the maximum concessions from the Zelensky
team, making peace as painful as possible. That way, not only will the Kremlin
get what it wants in Donbas, but it will be fueling civil conflict throughout
all of Ukraine (with the latest maidan already under way). Yermak’s Plan B of a wall around Donbas is
hollow, which will never happen for various reasons that include political will
and logistics.