25 October 2011
Balance of payment runs USD 2.0 bln deficit in September, according to preliminary data released yesterday by the National Bank of Ukraine. The current account deficit remained at USD 1.0 bln while the financial account was negative for the first time in this year (USD -1.0 bln). Svetlana Rekrut: The current account balance remained at USD 1.0 bln, almost the same level as in previous months. In September, export growth slowed considerably, from 36.1% y-o-y in August to 26.8% y-o-y. We attribute the deceleration in exports to decreasing external demand and falling commodity prices. A decline in metallurgy export growth (from 31.8% y-o-y in August to 14.0% y-o-y in September) was partially offset by an increase in agricultural goods exports (+32.9% y-o-y in September). The financial account deficit was derived from high demand from the population for foreign currency (in September, net population purchases were USD 2.1 bln vs. USD 0.8 bln in August). The financial gap was fully covered by the NBU’s international reserves, which dropped by more than 8.0% m-o-m to USD 35.0 bln (~3.9 months of future imports).