Putin discusses Kerch Strait conflict with Western leaders

Russian President Putin discussed the latest armed
conflict with Ukraine with Western leaders on Dec. 1 during his visit to the
G20 summit in Buenos Aires. In her meeting with Putin, German Chancellor Angela
Merkel expressed her concern with the growing tension in the Kerch Strait and
insisted upon unrestricted ship movement in the Azov Sea, her spokesman said,
as reported by the Associated Press news agency. They agreed upon further talks
to discuss the situation in the Kerch Strait at the levels of advisers of the
Normandy Four countries, which also include France and Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump did not officially meet
with Putin, having canceled such plans after Russia’s attack on Ukrainian navy
ships. However, Trump met with Putin informally during the summit at the Nov.
30 dinner, the Interfax news agency reported, citing the spokespeople for both
presidents. Russian President Putin confirmed the meeting at a Dec. 1 press
conference. “I answered his question related to the incident in the Black Sea,”
he said. “He has his position on these issues and problems – I have mine. But
in any case, we remained with our own views. In any case, I informed him about
our view of the incident.”

Zenon Zawada: With the
prospects for “more talks” on the latest “hot spot” in Ukraine (this time, the
Kerch Strait), it’s apparent that Putin is effectively manipulating Western
leaders (American leaders less so), who are willing to play along in his
charade. In 2015, Putin successfully managed to change the main subject of
discussion from Crimea to Donbas. Now in 2018, he is shifting the main subject
from Donbas to the Kerch Strait. We expect Putin will gradually keep creating
new conflict zones in this fashion, consistently shifting the frame for
discussion, throughout the next five years. This is the minimum duration for
which Putin plans to extend his hybrid war in Ukraine in his attempt to retake
control of the territory.

By that time, Putin expects that populist-nationalists
will have significant influence in European parliaments, if not majorities (as
in Italy already). He expects they will slowly begin to lift sanctions and
concede to Putin all his gains in Ukraine, starting with Crimea, which is
gradually being recognized as Russian in the unconscious minds of Westerners,
as recently demonstrated in the Guinness Book of Records. It’s certain that
Putin’s plans to recover control of Ukraine are for the mid-term perspective,
at minimum.