Ukraine 3Q15 GDP plunges 7% yoy, rises 0.7% qoq

Ukraine’s real GDP plunged 7.0% yoy in 3Q15, according to provisional estimates released by the State Statistics Service on Nov. 16. Real GDP increased 0.7% qoq, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers announced it’s considering three GDP scenarios and is projecting an 11.9% GDP decline in the worst-case scenario. The IMF forecasted a 9.0% GDP decline in 2015 for Ukraine. 

Alexander Paraschiy: The 3Q15 GDP decline is slightly worse than our estimate of a 6.4% yoy drop. Newertheless, we believe that our initial estimate of a 10.4% 2015 GDP decline for Ukraine is on track. Now the big question is about the economy prospects for 2016. Given that global resource prices remain sluggish and the Russian military occupation is continuing to drag down Ukrainian economy, we still expect near-zero GDP growth (+0.6% yoy) in 2016, in contrast to a 2% GDP increase being projected by the Cabinet.