Retail trade in Ukraine increases 9% in March

Retail trade increased 8.9% yoy in real terms in
March, accelerating from 7.2% yoy in February, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service
reported on Apr. 22. Retail sales surged 13.9% m/m in real terms. In 1Q19,
retail trade increased 7.4% in real terms (vs. 6.2% yoy in 1Q18).

Regionally, the highest retail growth in 1Q19 occurred
in the Kyiv (11.7% yoy), Vinnytsia (11.7% yoy) and Lviv (9.7% yoy) regions. It
was slowest in the Volyn (0.9% yoy), Chernihiv (2.0% yoy) and Kirovohrad (3.3%
yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Being
driven by personal income growth (mostly wages), real retail sales surged in
March despite higher inflation. Given poor
expectations on industrial growth and slower expansion of agriculture in 2019,
it is important for the service sector to maintain relatively high growth rates
for keeping the overall pace of economic growth in a decent range.

We expect real retail trade to increase 6-7% yoy in
2019 (vs. 6.2% yoy in 2018).