Russian leadership analyzed annexing southeastern Ukraine, Sikorski said

Before launching its invasion of the Crimean peninsula, the Russian government reached the conclusion that it would also gain tangible benefits from annexing the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhia, Dniproptrovsk and Odesa, said former Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in an interview published on Oct. 20 in Politico magazine. Russian leaders also calculated that occupying the Donetsk and Luhansk regions would not be beneficial and that occupying Crimea would be useful in blackmailing former President Viktor Yanukovych, who wanted to sign the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. “But in November 2013, something happened, something was broken,” Sikorski said. “Based on our conversations, it seems to me that (Russian President) Putin said something to Yanukovych in Sochi. I think he told him not to sign the Association Agreement or else Russia will occupy Crimea.”

 

The Russian government has wanted for many years to involve the Polish government in an invasion of Ukraine, Sikorski said in the same interview. “That was one of the first things that Putin told Prime Minister Donald Tusk when he visited Moscow,” Sikorski said. “He said that Ukraine is an artificial country and that Lviv is a Polish city and why not simply take care of it together.” Putin wants to push the West “to the edge,” Sikorski said. “Putin thinks he has bumped into a bunch of weaklings and he thinks we won’t go to war to defend the Baltic countries. You know, it could be that he’s right.”

 

The EU Foreign Ministers Council stressed the responsibility of the Russian government in fulfilling the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire protocols, it stated as part of the conclusions of its Oct. 20 meeting in Luxembourg. The Council called upon Russia to remove illegally armed formations, military hardware, fighters and mercenaries, as well as ensuring a permanent monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian border within the framework of the OSCE mission. It also called upon both sides to prepare for local elections in accordance with Ukrainian law and the Council stated it won’t recognize the self-declared elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. It also called upon Ukraine to continue the process of reforming and modernizing the Ukrainian economy in accordance with deadlines established by the Council and taking into account Ukraine’s international obligations.

 

The New York Times published an Oct. 20 article stressing that the Ukrainian army used cluster bombs in attacking the city of Donetsk on Oct. 2 and 5, nearly a month after a cease-fire was signed in Minsk. The two attacks wounded at least six people and killed a Swiss employee of the International Red Cross based in Donetsk. The same day, Human Rights Watch released a report stating the separatists used cluster bombs as well, which the New York Times couldn’t independently verify. However, both the New York Times and Human Rights Watch verified that the Oct. 2 and 5 attacks were likely committed by Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the southwest of the city. Human Rights Watch estimated cluster munitions have targeted population centers in the Donetsk region at least 12 times, blaming both sides and suggesting evidence of war crimes. There is “particularly strong evidence” of Ukrainian culpability, the report said. Ukrainian military spokesmen denied the use of cluster munitions by their soldiers, adding that the Russian-separatist forces have access to powerful rocket launchers.

 

Extrajudicial killings and other atrocities have been committed by the pro-Russian separatist and Ukrainian forces in the Donbas war, according to a report released on Oct. 20 by Amnesty International in Ukraine. However, their scale have been exaggerated by the Russian mass media and government bodies, said the report, “Extrajudicial killings during the conflict in eastern Ukraine.” Moreover, forming a reliable idea of the scale of these violations is very difficult, the report said. It’s also possible that many war crimes haven’t been discovered or have been falsified. Some of the most shocking incidents, particularly those reported in the Russian mass media, have been significantly exaggerated, said Amnesty International, which conducted its research between the end of August and the end of September.

 

Law enforcement authorities in the Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk region have begun to investigate 57 cases involving severe crimes committed by individuals in camouflage or those claiming to be fighters of the Aydar battalion, reported a local military prosecutor on Oct. 20. All of the crimes were committed beyond the zone of the government’s anti-terrorist operation.

 

For the first time in a month and a half, Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups tried on Oct. 20 to enter from Russia into Ukrainian territory that lies beyond the Donbas self-governance zones, reported the same day Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the National Security and Defense Council. They planned to join local separatists in an attack on the town of Shchastia. Numerous fighters on both sides were killed in an armed conflict at a nearby roadblock, Lysenko said.

 

Zenon Zawada: Sikorski’s revealing comments merely confirm that the possibility of a Russian invasion beyond the Donbas region can’t be ruled out for the next several years, for which the Ukrainian government has to prepare for. They confirm that Russia may have already occupied much of Ukrainian territory, if not for Western sanctions. And they also confirm that the Baltic states are not safe from a possible Russian invasion in the future. Sikorski’s comments confirm that Russian President Putin is making decisions entirely beyond the bounds and framework of international law, for which he has no regard. And the comments confirm that Putin’s leadership is the biggest threat to European security since World War Two. Meanwhile, the latest reports indicate the Russian government is ignoring the EU’s repeated urgings at upholding the cease-fire.

 

The New York Times report on the indiscriminate use of cluster munitions focused on the culpability of the Ukrainian side, though Human Rights Watch reported that both sides were responsible. Regardless of what the Russian-terrorist forces are responsible for, the Ukrainian government needs to investigate these incidents before issuing denials, as it has done with these cases. Investigations need to be performed and crimes need to be prosecuted and discouraged, especially for the goal of maintaining the support of the West, which is crucial for Ukraine in this conflict. Allowing such incidents to mount will only feed the intense campaign of the Russian mass media propaganda machine against the Ukrainian state.