Ukraine at risk of domestic turmoil that Russia could exploit, U.S. intelligence report says

Ukraine remains at risk of domestic turmoil, which Russia
could exploit to undermine Kyiv’s pro-Western orientation, according to a
report produced by Daniel Coats, the director of U.S. National Intelligence.
This risk of domestic turmoil “will threaten Ukraine’s nascent economic
recovery and potentially lead to changes in its foreign policy that further
inflame tensions between Russia and the West,” according to the Worldwide
Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community released on Feb. 13.
“Popular frustrations with the pace of reforms, depressed standards of living,
perceptions of worsening corruption, and political polarization ahead of
scheduled presidential and legislative elections in 2019 could prompt early
elections.”

Meanwhile, the conflict in eastern Ukraine is likely
to remain stalemated and marked by fluctuating levels of violence, the report
said. A major offensive by either side is unlikely in 2018, although each
side’s calculus could change if it sees the other as serious challenging the
status quo. Russia will continue its military, political and economic
destabilization campaign against Ukraine to stymie and, where possible, reverse
Kyiv’s effort to integrate with the EU and strengthen ties to NATO. Kyiv will
strongly resist concessions to Moscow but almost certainly will not regain
control of Russian-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine in 2018. Russia will
modulate levels of violence to pressure Kyiv and shape negotiations in Moscow’s
favor.

About 40% of Ukrainians are ready to participate in
mass protests as of December 2017, compared to 49% a year ago, according to
poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Those not
willing to participate in mass protests rose to 53% from 46% a year ago. The
poll, conducted in December, involved 2,039 respondents throughout Ukraine.

Zenon Zawada: The
conclusions about Ukraine of the U.S. National Intelligence confirm what
Concorde Capital has been telling its clients for several months. Except the
window for early elections has lapsed and we think that’s the very reason
Ukrainians are less interested in protesting. It’s not because they think
things are improving. Instead the public is aware that elections are
approaching and that will be an adequate opportunity to vent their discontent.
Early elections are even less likely with the Feb. 12 deportation of Mikheil
Saakashvili, who was perhaps the only politician in Ukraine capable of leading
mass protests to pressure the Poroshenko administration to early elections.

Unfortunately, we see a high potential for
maidan-style mass protests if the presidential elections – scheduled for March
2019 – aren’t conducted in accordance with international standards, which we
also see as a big risk considering that President Poroshenko is trailing in the
polls to his longtime rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Poroshenko is
also terrified by the prospect of her succeeding him as she will likely unleash
criminal prosecutions against him and his entourage, which even Western officials
would likely applaud.

The U.S. National Intelligence director’s
assessment of the war in Donbas also confirms what we’ve been saying on this topic for months. Unfortunately, Russia’s military campaign
has been effective in undermining Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. And we
expect the Kremlin will continue to use the war in Donbas as a lever to
pressure the Ukrainian government, and influence the public, throughout this
year’s election campaign and during next year’s elections.